Odds are...

SPORTING GOODS

Baseball Prospectus has a cool feature where they run a Monte Carlo type simulation of the remainder of the season. Based on records, the records of teams you are playing against, with a small nudge given to home field advantage, they simulate the rest of the season 1 million times.

With that methodology, they rate the Red Sox as having a 79% chance of making the postseason this year. I would not take those 5:4 odds! Meanwhile, they rate the Yanks as having a 48% chance of making it, with the majority of those odds coming from the chances that they win the AL East. This is because the Indians soft schedule gives them a 47% chance of winning the Wild Card.

If the season played out in its most likely form, the Red Sox would open against the Indians, with the White Sox hosting the Angels.

Over in the NL, the Mets have a 39% chance, including being rated as the most likely team to pass the Braves in the East. At 22%, they fall just short of the Astros' 24% chance of winning the Wild Card. We'd have Braves-Astros, Cards-Padres if the odds played out. Yawn.

You can see the whole list here. But as the old saying goes "they don't play the games in a super computer that runs a million outcome Monte Carlo simulation!"