Re-evaluating the Mets' offseason

Sporting Goods

In the last week, the Mets announced that the fifth spot in their starting rotation is going to go to a rookie, Brian Bannister, with no major league experience and only six games in AAA. In typical Mets fashion, this was a short-sighted decision that highlights the biggest mistakes of the Mets offseason.

At the start of spring training, the spot was assumed to be Aaron Heilman's. Heilman was given a locker next to the four incumbent starting pitchers. Heilman was so dominant as a reliever and effective in 4 out of 6 starts before being moved to the bullpen last year that it was only logical that the Mets would try to get more innings out of him this year as a starter. Both Bannister and Heilman pitched equally well this spring, but Heilman is being sent to the bullpen.

On its face, the reason given is a sensible one given some assumptions. According to the Mets logic, Bannister and Heilman are similar as starting pitchers (an assumption), but they know that Heilman is a dominant reliever. Moving Heilman to the bullpen thus greatly strengthens the pen while not significantly affecting the rotation. The only way this works is if Bannister is an effective starter. Presumably, if he stinks in his first few starts, Heilman can be moved into the rotation without too much problem. (I imagine his arm won't be too distressed by the change if it happens in the next month -- another assumption.)

But the biggest assumption, and one ignored by the decision, is that no current starter will miss time this season. What happens if one of the Mets starters goes down to injury? There is no option in the minor leagues that can step in and pitch in. Right now, the Mets are trying out Jose Lima, who could not have been worse this spring. And if it happens in more than a month, it will likely be difficult to move Heilman out of the pen (an assumption). So the biggest question is, what is the likelihood that a Mets' starter will get hurt, or will need another starter? Let's look at the starters:

Pedro - He's got a bad toe that kept him out of much of spring training and a partially torn labrum. Let's assume he'll miss a couple of starts.

Tom Glavine - He's 40 but he's never really been hurt. Let's assume he'll be fine.

Steve Trachsel - 35 year old pitcher who missed most of last season after having back surgery. Enough said.

Victor Zambrano - average 165 innings in the last three years. Doesn't bode well.

Brian Bannister - rookie.

Now how would Bannister in AAA help this? He would be the first guy up in case of injury. He would gain more experience in AAA. He would be insurance.

Now, I hear you saying already, insurance is nice and all, but if the bullpen stinks, you aren't going to win games anyway, so what is the point. Fair enough. That assumes that the bullpen stinks without Heilman. What does the Mets bullpen without Heilman look like? Billy Wagner, Duaner Sanchez, Jorge Julio, Chad Bradford, Heath Bell, Yusaku Iriki, and Royce Ring as Heilman's replacement. Good/bad? I don't know. But I do know that the Mets brass must not have that much confidence in this bunch if they are willing to preemptively cash in their rotation insurance plan.

You'll notice two bold names: Sanchez and Julio. The Mets traded started Jae Seo for Sanchez and starter Kris Benson (and his soon to be ex-wife, thanks Sergio) for Julio. The Mets made these trades to accomplish two goals: (1) to open a spot up for Aaron Heilman in the rotation, and (2) to solidify the bullpen. Given that Heilman now has to be in the bullpen to solidify it (obviously taking him out of the rotation), it is apparent that these trades failed to accomplish their goals. At the end of spring training, they now have an untested rookie in the starting rotation and so little faith in either Sanchez or Julio (from all accounts, they don't trust Julio) that they had to move a starter to the pen.

Moreover, the cover their asses argument given by the Mets that Heilman is so dominant in the pen that it just makes sense to have him there is ridiculous on its face. Pedro would be dominant in the pen too but since he can start effectively, he is more valuable there. The goal is to get your best pitchers to pitch as many innings as they can, so long as they remain effective. I'd rather have 200 innings of Heilman the starter than 80 of Heilman as a reliever because I think Heilman will be a great starter. Maybe I'm wrong and he turns out to be mediocre. What would happen then? Well, then you move him to the bullpen where he is a dominant force. Bullpen guys only become bullpen guys when they prove than can't be effective starters, e.g. Mariano Rivera, (or in Mets history) Jason Isringhausen. Heilman was never given a chance because the Mets blew a couple of trades. Unbelievable. Heilman gets screwed to cover up the front office's mistakes.

Look, I hope that Bannister is lights out this year. I love seeing young guys perform well. And, now I hope that Heilman is in the pen all year. If these things happen, the Mets will be in contention for the playoffs. And nobody will even look to Minaya to explain. But if these things don't happen, something bad happened. And the Mets have no plan B. Maybe I look like the biggest pessimist with this post. But I like to have a backup plan. I still think the Mets can be great this year. I'm still really excited. But I'm more nervous than I should be or needed to be.