Second Tier

SPORTING GOODS

I admit I get swept up in US Soccer fever, and probably think that our boys are better than they truly are. When FIFA comes out with rankings that suggest they are the 4th best team in the world, I am only emboldened. But I truly fear that the US won't get out of group play this year, and that it will be considered a setback for US Soccer since they got to the quarterfinals in 2002.

The fact is, that the main thing that separates world-class teams from non-world class teams is world-class players. And the US truly only has one world-class player, goalkeeper Kasey Keller.

In consultation with a European colleague, we counted the number of truly world-class players on the top squads. In addition to Brazil with their "magical quartet", England has 7 world class players, France has 6, Spain, Italy, and Netherlands have about 4 each, Argentina and the Czech Republic have 3.

Not coincidentally, those are probably the best 8 teams in the world. Throw in Portugal, Mexico, and the US, and you've probably got your top 11.

The good news is, it's the year 2006, only eight years separated from coming in dead last in the World Cup in France, and I can honestly say that I think the US is the 10th best team in the world.

The bad news is, we now have the weight of expectation. SportsCenter the other night did a great job with its US Soccer coverage when the roster was announced. But they displayed our odds of winning it all at 8-1. Go to a European betting site, and you'll see that our boys have 32-1 odds.

Furthermore, we have the 6th and 7th best teams in the world in our group (see my rankings below). To even have a chance of getting to the second round, we'll have to at least tie one of them, and that may still not be enough.

So what's the point of this post? I guess to remind myself that the US isn't there yet, that if we don't make the 2nd round we shouldn't be too disappointed, that the media should go easy on the US if they beat Ghana and only get 0 or 1 points from the other two matches, and that if we come in second in our group and get slaughtered by Brazil in the round of 16, well that is still pretty damn good.

Time to get the negativity out now, so I can root as hard as possible when June rolls around.

Darlucky's world rankings (take that FIFA!)
1. Brazil
2. England (with Rooney, who may not make it to the cup)
3. France
4. Argentina
5. Netherlands
6. Czech Republic
7. Italy
8. Spain
9. Portugal
10. USA
11. Mexico
12. Sweden