Developing Nation

SPORTING GOODS

One of the problems that the US has faced in international soccer competition over the last 10 years is one of geography. The CONCACAF region that they compete in just isn’t very strong. Mexico (like the US) is a 2nd tier team on the world stage, and depending how narrow you want to slice your tiers, only Costa Rica and Honduras might be considered 3rd tier, and that may be generous. Against that competition in World Cup qualifying or in the region’s championship (the Gold Cup), we are generally able to win all of our home games, including the big one against Mexico. Then on the road, we lose in Mexico (thanks to Mexico’s strength but also the tough conditions playing at 7,500 feet in smog in Mexico City), lose or tie one or two other matches, and win the rest to qualify/win the competition.

So it’s tough to know how good the team really is. Yes, we have become the dominant team in the region, and in 2002 made a nice run to the World Cup quarterfinals. But friendly matches against European or South American teams and the 2006 World Cup, along with the relative lack of success our individual players have had in Europe, suggest the US still has a way to go to really being a threat to go far in the World Cup.

That is why the Confederations Cup was going to be so interesting. One year from the World Cup, the team got to play some real matches on a neutral field against some of the best teams in the world. When I saw our draw, I didn’t think we’d win any games. Brazil and Italy to start things off is an obvious challenge. Egypt, the reigning African champs, are fairly similar to us in terms of overall talent, and were playing on their own continent. I missed the Italy game, but it seemed like we were a bit unlucky to lose in the way we did. And despite looking horrible against Brazil, we were not supposed to beat them, so it was hard to get too upset (except maybe with a perceived lack of courage/effort.)

As a result, it was really the Egypt game that I was most interested in, and that is where I think we showed where this team is. Egypt had beaten Italy, and lost to Brazil 4-3 before playing us for a berth to the next round. It was a decisive yet scrappy victory, where the team showed some real fire to go along with some individual skill. We had to then get very lucky to make the semi-finals (which we did), and then had to get lucky to beat Spain (which we did). Not to take away from the amazing effort against Spain – the victory was deserved. But clearly Spain is better than us, and I’m not sure we could beat them 3 out of 10 even with them spotting us that first game.

The Brazil game almost changed that view. In the first half, clearly they had more individual skill, but the US took it to them, playing good physical defense backed up by a superior keeper, taking the offensive chances when they came. The second half reversal wasn’t inevitable, but expected. The US team is just not as good as Brazil. And there’s no shame in that, as of the 202 teams in FIFA maybe 5 could say with a straight face that they are as good. But, as with the Spain game, being not as good did not necessarily mean that the US had to lose. And as someone who desperately wants to see the US get better, it was really exciting.

So what did we learn from the two weeks, which started with two tough losses (including one where they looked awful), but then transitioned to a great win over Egypt, a shocking win over Spain, and a tough loss to Brazil? To me, the Egypt win coupled with even being highly competitive in the Spain and Brazil games (win or lose) has told us a lot about the team. The 2nd tier comment up front could be challenged, but now I don’t think it would be true to say the US isn’t up there in that 2nd tier. And what does that mean? That means that quarterfinals in 2010 is a real possibility, and not getting to the round of 16 would be a big disappointment.

PS – two things to ignore over the next few weeks (we’ll see if I can follow my own advice). The Gold Cup, where we will be fielding a team that has exactly zero of our starters from the Confederations Cup, and the FIFA rankings that come out later this week. I wouldn’t be surprised if we jump into the top 10 which means exactly nothing (just like it meant nothing when we dropped into the mid to high 20s).