Sunday, December 04, 2005

The New York Marlins

Sporting Goods

Well, the Mets have continued their offseason trend of poaching players from division rivals. First it was Delgado from the Marlins. That was followed closely by signing Billy Wagner from the Phillies. And now, it appears, the Mets have taken Paul Lo Duca off the hands of the Marlins. I don't know yet what the Mets gave up, but this looks like a money move.

Here's why. Lo Duca is already a 33 year old catcher. So he's old. Yes, he has been an all-star the last three years but, a quick look at his numbers shows that he is clearly on the decline. Actually, with the exception of 2001, he has never been that good. He is a singles hitter, .380 slugging % last year (career .417), that doesn't get on base too often, career .339 on-base %. On top of that, he can't throw out runners. Last year he threw out 25% of runners, although his career number is much better (33%).

Now, admittedly, Molina and Hernandez aren't much better hitters or better behind the plate. Which means this is all about money. Lo Duca costs about $4.5 million for next season. Rumors have it that the Mets offered Molina and Hernandez about $7 million a season. So the Mets saved $2.5 million but gave up a couple of pitching prospects. So really, the Mets took $2.5 million in exchange for a couple of prospects. It is worth it? Depends on the prospects, I guess.

UPDATE: Thanks to reader O, it look like the Mets traded one of their best pitching prospects 19 year-old Gaby Hernandez. He struck out nearly a batter an inning in A ball last year. This is now a horrible trade. Especially since the Mets could have acquired a better catcher without giving up anything. This is just so short-sighted. See Above.

4 Comments:

Blogger Yossarian said...

I disagree. This trade is good. Sure, Gaby Hernandez was great in single-A ball, but he is an unknown commodity. Will he be great? Maybe. But he is far more likely not to be. Lo Duca is a fine catcher who should fit into the 7 hole nicely and provide solid defense behind the plate. Molina and Hernandez are not that much better and would've been paid a lot more than Lo Duca. (Clearly, they were looking to up the Mets initial offers at the winter meetings or else one of them would have signed a week ago. Then the Mets would have probably had to significantly overpay. Now they will may each have to take less.)

Plus, if they signed a free agent, they lose a draft pick. Could that draft pick turn out to be the future of the Mets? Maybe, but again, you never know. I think you should put a couple A+ prospects to the side like Milledge (and Reyes and Wright before him) and everyone else is fair game. Sure, the Mets blew it when they gave up Kazmir. It was one of the worst trades in the history of the franchise. But Minaya didn't make it. I think some Met fans are still so scarred by that awul swap that they see any prospect traded away as a future Hall of Famer. It just ain't so.

Monday, December 05, 2005 2:14:00 PM  
Blogger Chill said...

Who steps in for the Mets starting pitchers when they no longer have Pedro, Glavine, Trachsel, and Benson?

No we know it won't be a minor leaguer. So we are looking at trades or free agents. But they can't make trades because they have nothing to trade. And, as you rightly point out, if you sign free agents, you kill your draft making it impossible to keep valuable young players in the farm system to trade for spots, or replenish the roster.

I don't know if Gaby Hernandez is going to be a Hall of famer, in fact, I clearly didn't say that. But raiding the farm system for a 34 year-old catcher that is not significantly better than what you already have. That's just foolishness.

Sure the trade may be fair, but when you look at what the Mets already have, and what they will need in the future, it has the potential to be a very bad trade. Sorry.

Monday, December 05, 2005 2:44:00 PM  
Blogger Yossarian said...

I guess you just have more faith in players like Hernandez than I do.

Monday, December 05, 2005 3:39:00 PM  
Blogger Chill said...

It isn't faith in Hernandez, it is Lo Duca's value vs what they already have at that position + the potential of what they are giving up.

Check the numbers. Castro was as (almost) good as Lo Duca offensively last season and better defensively. That means you gave Hernandez away without ever giving him a shot. It isn't faith in Hernandez, he may never amount to shit, but he has a chance to be something and the Mets effectively gave him away to get a player they already have.

Monday, December 05, 2005 5:21:00 PM  

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