Finally, a lineup (warning, stat nerd alert!)

SPORTING GOODS

With the Coco Crisp and Alex Gonzalez deals done, the Red Sox finally have a lineup. I agree with Dewey's House that it will look like this:

Coco Crisp, CF
Mark Loretta, 2B
David Ortiz, DH
Manny Ramirez, LF
Trot Nixon, RF
Jason Varitek, C
Mike Lowell, 3B
Kevin Youkilis, 1B
Alex Gonzalez, SS

Bench:
Dustin Mohr, OF
Willie Harris, IF.OF
Alex Cora / Tony Graffanino, IF
J.T. Snow, 1B
Josh Bard, C

Now, I'll gripe about that lineup when it actually hits the field, as Coco batting first goes against everything that the 2004 championship team was built on, but that's not what I want to write about now. What I want to do is use a couple of Baseball Prospectus's favorite stats to guestimate how many runs more/fewer this lineup could be expected to put up (by using VORP), and how many more their gloves might prevent/let in (by using FRAR).

I won't bore you with all the analysis I did, but the key to know is that I adjusted plate appearances where necessary, but mostly just compared new guys' 2005 performance with the guys that they replaced. I've assumed Graffanino will get traded (and Alex Cora will stay), Snow and Youkilis will be used the way Olerud and Millar were, and that Harris, Cora, and Mohr will pretty much cover the at-bats taken by Kapler, Payton, Cruz, Cora, Youkilis, and Vazquez last year. Last, I assumed that Lowell will perform between his 2004 and 2005 numbers. If he repeats 2005, we'll really wish that the Sox hadn't traded Marte.

Anyway, to get to it, I'd expect the Sox to score about 20 fewer runs with their 2006 lineup than they did in 2005. The biggest losing spot is from Damon to Crisp (8 runs), with the loss of Mueller, Renteria, and Olerud costing the Sox 5-6 runs each, considering their replacements. The biggest positive is the move from Millar to Youkilis, which I estimate will give the Sox an extra 11 runs. Cowboy up, Youk!

At the same time, it's obvious the Sox were hoping to shore up their fielding a bit, and according to Fielding Runs Against Replacement, one of many stats that I could have used (as none are perfect), it looks like the Sox would save an extra 10 runs with their new lineup.

So for all the waiting, worrying, and wailing, it looks like the Sox are down 10 runs from last year. That's worth about 0.8 wins. The big question is, can the Sox improved pitching save even more runs than that, to actually improve their outlook? My gut says yes, but that's the next timewaster for me...

Oh, and one last thing. If Lowell slumps in 2006 the way he did in 2005, and gets 600 at-bats, the Sox would be down an extra 25 runs. That would probably be enough to keep them out of the playoffs.