Math is Hard

MANIFESTO

Here's what I think is going to happen tonight: Hillary wins Ohio. Obama wins Texas. Both margins are within a field goal so the delegate count is a wash. Obama probably wins Rhode Island and blows Hillary out in Vermont because those people hate hate hate the war and won't ever forgive her for authorizing it.

Hillary has a big meeting tonight/tomorrow with her advisers and decides to stay in it because they now have "momentum." Plus, she won a "Big State," as if that means anything. (Reality check: McCain is going to win Texas no matter what. Obama is going to win California even though he lost the primary to Hillary. The Big State argument makes no sense.) She throws all her chips into Pennsylvania and spends the next seven weeks(!) tearing into Obama, weakening him before his inevitable showdown vs. McCain.

But here's the thing, Clinton lovers. She can't win. She cannot mathematically overtake Obama's delegate lead even if she won the final 16 races. Newsweek's Jonathan Alter breaks it down:

...no matter how you cut it, Obama will almost certainly end the primaries with a pledged-delegate lead, courtesy of all those landslides in February. Hillary would then have to convince the uncommitted superdelegates to reverse the will of the people. Even coming off a big Hillary winning streak, few if any superdelegates will be inclined to do so. For politicians to upend what the voters have decided might be a tad, well, suicidal.

For all of those who have been trashing me for saying this thing is over, please feel free to do your own math. Give Hillary 75 percent in Kentucky and Indiana. Give her a blowout in Oregon. You will still have a hard time getting her through the process with a pledged-delegate lead.

It's just math, folks. And the idea of Superdelegates handing her the nomination after she loses the plurality of votes is nothing short of fascist. (And I promise I would be saying this if the coin were flipped. Fair is fair.) So I'll check back in on Thursday or Friday and see where we are. Hopefully it'll officially be Obama vs. McCain. Unless that little bastard Huckabee is still hanging around.

(BTW, McCain's middle name is Sidney! How gay!)

UPDATE (THE MORNING AFTER):
Ugh.
Alter is still right but the narrative has changed.
This is going to go on all summer.
Wake me up in November.
Ugh.