Calling for Smoltz

SPORTING GOODS

So after a couple of blown saves, Baseball Tonight analysts are already asking if Smoltz should take over the job. People seem to be surprised that Danny Kolb, he of the 39 saves for a lousy team last year (Brewers), has already blown two saves. But with careful consideration, one could see this coming.

In 2004, Danny Kolb struck out just 21 batters in 57 innings, meaning that for every 3 saves he relied on his fielders to convert 8 of the 9 outs that he was called on to get. The reason that strikeout pitchers win is not just because they have the best stuff, it is because they minimize the number of batted balls that go into play. Three things can happen when a batted ball goes into play: the fielder can make the play, the fielder can botch the play, or the ball can fall in for a hit. Two out of three are bad. Striking out batters keeps the control in the outcome with the pitcher.

Last year, Kolb's fielders converted 75% of batted balls into outs for him. Smoltz's fielders converted much closer to the league average, or 69%. So considering Kolb rarely strikes anyone out, it would make sense that Kolb will end up with a batting average against of about 40-50 points higher this year.

What's 40-50 points? Well, looking at career numbers, that's enough to take a hitter like John Kruk and make him into Tony Gwynn.

That's good new for the rest of the NL East.