The Mets - 2006 NL East Champs?
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Last year, the New York Mets finished in third place. It was their highest finish since they made the World Series in 2000. The season was all about growth: The emergence of young David Wright, who looks like he will soon be the best third-baseman in the NL. An injury free season from Jose Reyes, who is still young but has tremendous potential and is one of the most exciting players I've ever watched run the bases. The startling rise of Aaron Heilman, who went from failed prospect to effective starter to lights out reliever. (This is my favorite story of last season and the one that I think most Met fans forget. Heilman was just flat-out unhittable for the last 3 months of the season, with more than a K per inning and a .65 ERA after the all-star break. Why again didn't Willie make him the closer when Looper was blowing games?) And 100 good at-bats from rookie Mike Jacobs, which the Mets turned into Carlos Delgado. Other than the emergence of those players, though, there wasn't much that went right for the Mets. Mike Cameron was injured most of the year. Carlos Beltran played with a hamstring injury for months and was never the player he should have been. Their first basemen, with the exception of Mike Jacobs for the last month (poised to be a monster for the Marlins), were the worst collection of hacks in the NL. Victor Zambrano and Kaz Ishii inexplicably started for much of the season, preventing the Mets from putting together a meaningful winning streak. Then there was the bullpen that blew more saves than I can remember. Despite this, the Mets scored more runs than they allowed, and based on run differential should have been in the thick of the wildcard race until the end of the season.
So what have the Mets done this offseason. They've addressed their holes at first base (Delgado), catcher (Lo Duca) and closer (Wagner). In each case, they've done so with former all-star players. And, as of yet, they haven't really given a whole lot away to get these chips. Moreover, every player they've added, they poached from a Division rival. On top of that, the Braves just lost Rafael Furcal to the Dodgers. So at this point, given the decline of their rivals and the acquisitions by the Mets, you have to say that the Mets are the prohibitive favorites in the NL East.
Which makes me wonder why the Mets want to keep making moves. Why trade Kris Benson? And why ravage the farm system to get Manny Ramirez? I don't get it. The Mets absolutely cannot mortgage their future by trading a 20 year-old phenom prospect, Lastings Milledge, or by giving away Heilman for a big name. Sure they may help themselves next year but in two years the Mets may look like the aging "superstar" laden team across the river in the Bronx. If anything, 2005 proves that young players, if given a chance, can perform better than imported veteran players. (And if the Mets didn't realize this from their own young players, they should have learned it from watching the Division Champion Atlanta Braves.) I can only wonder why the Mets don't realize this and continue to chase "names." If they do all the things that are being speculated by those in "the know," this team could get old real quick and whatever success they have will be short-lived.
posted by Chill at 12/04/2005 10:00:00 PM
5 Comments:
it looks like the mets are trying to win a world series in the next 2-3 years and they're spending like it.
-O
Since is it a fool's errand to try and guess what Minaya is going to do, I will stick to what he has done. With Wagner, Delgado, and Lo Duca, the Mets have significantly upgraded themselves in exchange for only one significant prospect (Petit for Delgado). Minaya has already said he is not trading Heilman or Milledge so I would assume that would prohibit them from obtaining Manny (who probably doesn't want to come to NY anyway). I don't really have an issue with swapping Benson for a top-tier middle reliever or setup man since I think he is probably only a #3 guy at best. Sure, I would love to be rid of Matsui and Zambrano but no one wants them. Have the Mets really mortgaged their future to win now? I don't see it. Barring injury, think the Mets can survive the final years of these contracts (Pedro, Delgado, Wagner) and will stay competive because their core (Wright, Reyes, maybe Milledge) will be just hitting their prime three years from now.
I say kudos to Minaya for making the Mets relevant again. They are from the biggest and most profitable market in sports but for too long have run themselves like they're from Kansas City or Minnesota. We have more money than just about anybody else and I for one am far happier with the way Minaya has earmarked it than his predecessor. (Sure the Mets have spent big bucks in the past with little to show for it on guys like Cedeno, Vaughn, and Burnitz but the new guys are head and shoulders better.) Unless Atlanta pulls off something unbelievable, the Mets will be the favorites to win the National League East in 2006 and beyond.
I was remiss not to mention Mike Jacobs was also part of the Delgado deal. He looks like he could be a great hitter, but then again if you can get Delgado you have to make the deal.
what about Gaby Hernandez? Now the Mets have traded their top two minor league pitching prospects for Delgado (great player) and Lo Duca (mediocre, at best). For the value, the Mets could have kept Hernandez and just used Castro as a starter. I'm not sure he's appreciably worse than Lo Duca, especially considering the money and the loss of future prospects, who could contribute in the future, or at worst be used as trade bait to get the missing pieced at the all-star break. Just a foolish, foolish trade.
it's not a good trade for the mets. loduca has no power and is not a plus defender. on top of that, he's 33 and due 12.5 million the next two years. the mets should not have given up such a good prospect as gabby hernandez.
it feels like they are taking the yankees approach of throwing together a bunch of "name" players past their prime and expecting to win. i don't like the taste of it.
i'm not trying to take shots here, but if my team's core was wright (who is fantastic), reyes (whose obp was .300) and a minor leaguer (milledge), i would feel uneasy. it is an old team.
-O
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