Pre-emptive MVP rant

SPORTING GOODS

Sports radio and internet has started to push the Ryan Howard for MVP argument. The argument is that Howard, who leads the league in HR's and RBI's, has carried the Phillies into the thick of the Wild Card race, while Carlos Beltran and Jose Reyes are in cruise control due to the Mets' huge lead.

I won't bring Albert Pujols into the argument because it just makes it complicated, and I'll pick Beltran over Reyes because the stats support that. Just for fun, here's a comparison of some key stats between Beltran and Howard:

Win Shares:
Beltran: 1st
Howard: 10th

Offensive win shares:
Beltran: 3rd
Howard: 7th

OBP:
Beltran: 11th
Howard: 15th

SLG:
Beltran: 2nd
Howard: 3rd

OPS:
Beltran: 2nd
Howard: 4th

Runs created:
Howard: 2nd'
Beltran: 4th

RBI:
Howard: 1st
Beltran: 2nd

HR:
Howard: 1st
Beltran: 3rd

Runs:
Beltran: 2nd
Howard: 19th

Times mentioned as gold glove candidate:
Beltran: frequently
Howard: 0

Team games over .500:
Beltran: 32
Howard: 1

There are two things that sportswriters tend to overemphasize when voting for the MVP: RBI and late season performance. For evidence of the latter, see Guerrero, Vlad and Tejada, Miguel. Two years ago Vlad Guerrero won the MVP with a torrid two week stretch at the end of the season, including six homers in the last six games. Meanwhile, Gary Sheffield lost out on the award, largely because his hot first four months allowed the Yankees to run away and hide in the AL East. In sportswriter fantasy land, two weeks > four months. For evidence of the RBI effect, look at just about any year, especially those when Juan Gonzalez won the MVP.

So, Beltran has three things going against him. In addition to Jose Reyes likely splitting some votes with him, Beltran falls short in the RBI category (even though he is second in the league) and in late season heroics (as any Beltran walk-offs in September will barely make the first half hour of SportsCenter).

Carlos Beltran should not be a victim of his own success while Ryan Howard leads the Phillies drive to finish over .500. Furthermore, the discrepancy in Win Shares posted above is largely because Ryan Howard has barely made a greater contribution at first than David Ortiz. Zone ratings agree, with Ryan Howard ranked as the second worst fielding first baseman in the National League (needless to say first is the easiest position to play), while Beltran is second in the league in centerfield (one of the most difficult positions). If Papi couldn't get elected because he doesn't field, how can Ryan Howard?

Ryan Howard is a monster. He is one of the most feared hitters in the majors, with good reason. But on August 30, he is not the NL MVP, nor should he finish top 3. But he will, unless the Phillies fall flat on their face in September.