Sergio Will Win Your Oscar Pool!

UNIVERSAL REMOTE

First off, I’d like to apologize for my protracted absense from Daily411. I won’t bore you with mundane details, but you can be assured that drinking water has been restored, the schools have be reopened and the rebellion has been put down.

With a week to go before Hollywood’s Biggest Night™, office workers around the country are scrambling to fill out their Oscar Ballots and wondering what the hell is the difference between a Sound Mixer and a Sound Editor. You can now put your worries to rest because Sergio is about to make your lives a little bit easier by telling you who is going win every single category, even the lame ones.

All nominees will be ranked in the order of likelihood they will win.

BEST PICTURE
1. Brokeback Mountain
2. Crash
3. Good Night, and Good Luck.
4. Munich
5. Capote

This should be an easy victory for Brokeback. There are rumblings of a Crash upset, but I think this is more about journalists needing something to write about. Then again, don’t count out the Tony Curtis Factor. If Crash were to win, it would be the greatest Oscar upset in history, and the biggest since Shakespeare in Love came out of nowhere to beat Saving Private Ryan in 1999.

BEST ACTOR
1. Philip Seymour Hoffman, Capote
2. Heath Ledger, Brokeback Mountain
3. Terrence Howard, Hustle & Flow
4. Joaquin Phoenix, Walk the Line
5. David Straithairn, Good Night, and Good Luck.

This is going to be the most interesting of the major categories, but I think the gay writer will beat the gay cowboy.

BEST ACTRESS
1. Reese Witherspoon, Walk the Line
2. Felicity Huffman, Transamerica
3. Keira Knightley, Pride & Predjudice
4. Charlize Theron, North Country
5. Judi Dench, Mrs. Henderson Presents

Witherspoon in a Walk. (Get it?) Extra fun: Watching Ryan Phillipe pretend to be happy his more-famous, more-talented spouse just won an Oscar instead of him. (The closest he will ever come to Oscar is when he's dusting off hers.) These things never work out well. Just ask Chad Lowe.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
1. George Clooney, Syriana
2. Paul Giamatti, Cinderella Man
3. Jake Gyllenhaal, Brokeback Mountain
4. Matt Dillon, Crash
5. William Hurt, A History of Violence

The handsome, dashing, charismatic, funny movie star that got fat beats the already-fat guy that got passed over by Oscar two years running. Members want to vote for the triple-nominated (and widely-admired) Clooney and this is the best category for them to do this. Although I can't help the feeling that a dark horse like Gyllenhaal or Dillon will steal this one out from under both of them.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1. Rachel Weisz, The Constant Gardener
2. Amy Adams, Junebug
3. Michelle Willliams, Brokeback Mountain
4. Catherine Keener, Capote
5. Frances McDormand, North Country

Another foregone conclusion, though I saw and liked Gardener and think Weisz was good but not great. Shame on voters for leaving off Shirley MacLaine (In Her Shoes) and Maria Bello (A History of Violence), both of whom gave better performances than anyone on this list.

BEST DIRECTOR
1. Ang Lee, Brokeback Mountain
2. Paul Haggis, Crash
3. Steven Spielberg, Munich
4. George Clooney, Good Night, and Good Luck
5. Bennett Miller, Capote

Lee will finally win his first Oscar. (He was expected to win in 2000 for Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon but was upset by double-nominee Steven Soderbergh for Traffic.)

BEST ADAPTED SCREEENPLAY
1. Larry McMurtry and Diana Ossana, Brokeback Mountain
2. Dan Futterman, Capote
3. Tony Kushner and Eric Roth, Munich
4. Jeffrey Caine, The Constant Gardener
5. Josh Olson, A History of Violence

Chance of victory for McMurtry and Ossana: 100%. (Margin of Error: 0%)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
1. Paul Haggis and Bobby Moresco, Crash
2. Noah Baumbach, The Squid and the Whale
3. Stephen Gaghan, Syriana
4. George Clooney and Grant Heslov, Good Night, and Good Luck.
5. Woody Allen, Match Point

The multi-character narrative of Crash just beats indie-darling Squid. Amazingly, this is Woody Allen’s 14th writing nomination. (He won for Annie Hall and Hannah and Her Sisters.)

ANIMATED FEATURE
1. Wallace & Gromit in the Curse of the Were-Rabbit 2. Howl's Moving Castle 3. Tim Burton's Corpse Bride

ART DIRECTION
1. Memoirs of a Geisha 2. King Kong 3. Pride & Prejudice 4. Good Night, and Good Luck. 5. Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire

CINEMATOGRAPHY
1. Brokeback Mountain 2. Memoirs of a Geisha 3. Good Night, and Good Luck. 4. The New World 5. Batman Begins

COSTUMES
1. Memoirs of a Geisha 2. Pride & Prejudice 3. Charlie and the Chocolate Factory 4. Walk the Line 5. Mrs. Henderson Presents

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
1. March of the Penguins 2. Murderball 3. Enron: The Smartest Guys in the Room 4. Darwin's Nightmare 5. Street Fight

DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT
1. God Sleeps in Rwanda 2. The Death of Kevin Carter: Casualty of the Bang Bang Club 3. The Mushroom Club 4. A Note of Triumph: The Golden Age of Norman Corwin

FILM EDITING
1. Crash 2. The Constant Gardener 3. Munich 4. Cinderella Man 5. Walk the Line

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
1. Tsotsi (South Africa) 2. Joyeux Noël (France) 3. Paradise Now (Palestinian Authority) 4. Sophie Scholl -- The Final Days (Germany) 5. Don't Tell (Italy)

MAKE-UP
1. The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe 2. Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith 3. Cinderella Man

ORIGINAL SCORE
1. Gustavo Santaolalla, Brokeback Mountain 2. John Williams, Memoirs of a Geisha 3. John Williams, Munich 4. Dario Marianelli, Pride & Prejudice 5. Alberto Iglesias, The Constant Gardener

ORIGINAL SONG
1. “It's Hard Out Here for a Pimp,” from Hustle & Flow 2. “In the Deep,” from Crash 3. “Travelin' Thru,” from Transamerica

ANIMATED SHORT
1. One Man Band 2. 9 3. The Moon and the Son: An Imagined Conversation 4. Badgered 5. The Mysterious Geographic Explorations of Jasper Morello

LIVE ACTION SHORT
1. Six Shooter 2. Our Time Is Up 3. Cashback 4. The Last Farm 5. Ausreisser (The Runaway)

SOUND EDITING
1. King Kong 2. War of the Worlds 3. Memoirs of a Geisha

SOUND MIXING
1. Walk the Line 2. King Kong 3. The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe 4. War of the Worlds 5. Memoirs of a Geisha

VISUAL EFFECTS
1. King Kong 2. The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe 3. War of the Worlds

So Brokeback Mountain will be the night's big winner with five Oscars and its place in history. I expect at least a shout-out from people when I win them their pools, if not a small cut of the proceeds. The real fun will be seeing if Jon Stewart makes more jokes about gun-toting Dick Cheneys or marching penguins.