Monday, October 03, 2005

Bad news for Red Sox fans

Sporting Goods

Last year, Vinay Kumar took an interesting look at various baseball statistics and how they correlate to winning in the playoffs, based on assertions that Billy Beane's Moneyball theory doesn't work in the playoffs.

The stats are from before last year's playoffs (1995-2003), but there are 14 statistics for which having a sizable advantage over the opponent led to a correlation with winning the playoff matchup. In other words, does stealing 20 more bases than your opponent in the regular season have a correlation with winning? What about having guys named Derek? Etc.

Among those 14 key categories, three are "too close" between the Sox and Sox to tell us anything. Of the remaining 11, the White Sox have a significant edge in 10. If these trends hold true, it spells trouble for the Red Sox.

For example, in the two most positive trends for winning a playoff series, allowing at least 70 fewer hits and committing at least 12 fewer errors, the White Sox get a check in both categories. So I guess we just have to hope for ESPN's lame "Anything Can Happen!" truism to make ourselves feel better.


Post a Comment

<< Home